2004 Position Review: Point Guards, Pt. 1

Point Guard Rankings.

Point guard can be very easily overlooked in a fantasy draft. While everyone keeps an eye on centers, point guards are almost nearly as scarce, and it’s tougher to compensate when you don’t get a good one (or two). There are plenty of forwards that can make up for blocks and rebounds lost if you have a bad center. But not having a good point guard will absolutely cost you in the assists category. A good fantasy basketball team should have two strong point guards. So what is there to choose from? Lets look at the top 12.

Tier One – Cream of the Crop.

1. LeBron James (CLE) – Well we can’t get past the first ranking without some controversy. Some fantasy services have LeBron as a SG, some as a PG, some maybe as SF. We’re going to put him at PG because that’s where he has the most value. Of the point guards last year, he had the most points (just beating out Marbury), 2nd most boards (1 behind Francis), 13th in assists, 5th in steals, 1st in blocks (by 23!)...and that was his ROOKIE year.
Take Him: In the late first round. He’s not in the elite yet, but this might be the last year you can say that.
But Remember: If you take him, you’re going to need to spend a mid-round (4-6) pick on another PG who gets lots of 3’s and assists (think Hinrich or Jason Williams).

2. Baron Davis (NO) – Here’s a guy who plays like a fantasy player’s dream. He goes for the steal every time he gets the chance, 41% of his shots are 3 pointers, and he collects 7.5 assists a game. Of course, he also murders you at the free throw line. Plus, he’s lost major time to injury each of the last 2 seasons. That keeps him from the #1 spot on this list, but with smart drafting later on, and a little luck, this guy can lead you to the title.
Take Him: In the early 2nd round. The injury risk and hideous FT% means he’s a great 2nd pick, but not the guy you want to hinge your whole season on.
But Remember: You’ve just blown your one bad FT% pick, and at the worst position. PG’s are generally the best FT shooters in the league. You can’t afford to have a guy like Shaq or Antoine Walker on your team now, unless you’re willing to punt free throws.

3. Stephon Marbury (NYK) – Ladies and gentlemen, may I present your assists leader for 2004-05. With Kidd out of the picture, Marbury is ready to take the reigns as the most deft passer in the league. Plus he’ll score 20 points a game, hit a 3, and give you a steal or two. A complete point guard.
Take Him: In the second round. Play the matchup: if you got a C or PF in round 1, he’s a great complement. If you took a guard in round 1, pass him up for a big man.
But Remember: He might not have the ball as much this year, as he shares the backcourt with Jamal Crawford. That’s a volatile mix in MSG.

4. Steve Francis (HOU) – Out of the shadows of Yao, Stevie Franchise is ready to re-break out this year. He’s got his buddy Cuttino Mobley with him, a young, inexperienced front line, and the ball is all his. Look for him to return to plus-20 scoring averages, with 6 boards, 6 assists, and a couple steals. He’ll be a triple-double threat all year long.
Take Him: In the second round. Risk-takers could take him in front of Marbury, but it’s always hard to tell what a new team will do to players’ stats.
But Remember: With no one else around him to shoot the ball, his already-pedestrian assist numbers could take a hit.

Tier Two – Next Best

5. Sam Cassell (MIN) – Boy, has he ever reinvented himself. First he was the ugly, brash young energy guy for the Rockets’ title teams in the mid-90’s. Now he’s the ugly, brash old reliable point guard for the Timberwolves. His shooting percentage hasn’t dipped below .463 since 1998, incredible for a PG, and he’s a lock for 18 points and 6.5 assists, if not more.
Take Him: In the third. He won’t help much in any categories other than the ones listed above, but he won’t hurt you anywhere.
But remember: He’ll be 35 in November. Will his legs hold up?

6. Gilbert Arenas (WAS) – An extremely valuable, but extremely frustrating fantasy player. When he shows up to play, he’s a top-tier guy – plus values in points, assists, boards, steals, 3’s. But he’ll have nights where he mails it in, frustrating his coaches and his owners.
Take Him: In the third round. He’s high-risk, high-reward, and if you don’t have a PG by round 3 he’s a great choice.
But Remember: He’s missed major time in 2 of his first 3 years, and already turned an ankle in the preseason. This doesn’t bode well.

7. Kirk Hinrich (CHI) – If you take him where we want you to, you’re gonna get a few laughs from the rest of your league. But don’t worry – they’re all wrong. With Jamal Crawford gone, Kirk is going to get a chance to shine, and he’ll take full advantage. Last February, he averaged 14.8 points, 8.1 assists, 2.6 3’s, and 2 steals. Expect those kind of numbers over the course of the full year.
Take Him: In the late 3rd/early 4th. He does everything you want a point guard to do for your squad.
But Remember: His FG% was bad last year (38.6%), and it could be worse if defenses key on him more.

Third Tier: The Jason Kidd Tier.

8. Jason Kidd (NJN) – Yikes. Just avoid him. Let him be someone else’s problem this year. He’s hurt, unhappy, and is getting old. That said, he’s got 2nd-round upside if he gets his act together.
Take Him: No earlier than the 4th round, and even that’s a question mark. You hear me? NO EARLIER.
But Remember: To laugh at the guy that takes him in the 2nd.

Tier Four: Good, but not THAT good.

9. Chauncey Billups (DET) – Here’s a very encouraging statistic for Billups owners. One Rasheed Wallace showed up in Detroit, Chauncey’s assists shot up from 5.1 to 7.0. His shooting percentage leapt from .383 to .425. With Wallace there to take some of the offensive load, Billups is becoming more of a true PG, while still hitting 3’s at a nice rate.
Take Him: In the 4th. If he continues to play like he did last February and March, he could be a top-5 pick.
But Remember: Those numbers (7 assists, .425 FG%) are the absolute best you could hope for.

10. Steve Nash (PHO) – Sorry, but I’m just not sold on his return to the Suns. He was a great player in Dallas, but then again that system made a star point guard out of Marquis Daniels. Dallas could be to point guard what the Denver Broncos are to running backs. But still, he’ll give you 12 points, 7 assists, a three pointer, and ridiculously good FT%.
Take Him: In the fifth. He’s dependable if nothing else, and that’s what you want at that point in the draft.
But Remember: Don’t expect him to return to 17 points per game territory. He’s behind Marion, Stoudamire, and maybe even Richardson on the offensive option list.

11. Mike Bibby (SAC) – Last year he set career highs in points and three-pointers, and had his most minutes, assists and rebounds since coming to the Kings. This year, Bobby Jackson comes back. Webber comes back (for a bit, at least). And Bibby won’t have the ball in his hands as much. Temper your expectations here a bit.
Take Him: In the fifth. He’ll score a bunch, and he’s established himself as a consistent threat.
But Remember: If he’s the first PG you take, you’ll need to take another one REAL soon to make up for low assist numbers (under 6 apg each of the last 3 years).

12. Andre Miller (DEN) – Once you realize this isn’t 2001 anymore, and he’s not in Cleveland, and you temper your expectations, Miller is a fine (just fine) point guard. He’ll get you nice assist numbers, a couple steals, and about 14 points. Miller’s big downside as a PG is he shoots almost NO three pointers. The only starter to shoot less threes last year was Eric Snow.
Take Him: In the 6th. There’s a nice drop-off after Miller, so if you don’t have a PG at this point, you’ve gotta target him.
But Remember: You’re going to have to get 3’s from some non-traditional spots if he’s your starting PG.