bewareupside

Southeast Division

The worst division in all of sports? Quite likely. And just imagine what it would have been like if Shaq wasn't in town. The Heat are obviously the heavy favorites. The Magic -- a team that won 21 games last year -- is the consensus pick for second. Don't you think the Hornets just hate that? The Hawks and the Bobcats should be the two worst teams in the league, and the Wizards, well, I love 'em, but they're the Wizards.

Atlanta Hawks

Kenny Anderson, PG
This guy was the #2 overall pick in the draft once upon a time, do you realize that? He's coming back to the scenes of his greatest accomplishments (college) and has the starting PG job to begin the season. The Hawks will suck, but they'll still put up 85 points somehow, so people will have to contribute. But I still can't see Anderson being a fantasy asset. He won't get more than 5 apg and he gets absolutely nothing from long range. He might get a steal or two, but won't score. It's hard to leave a starting PG on the board, but he's not worth your time.

Jon Barry, SG
Because Josh Childress stunk it up in preseason, it looks like Barry could start the year as Atlanta's SG. Like his brother, he can hit some 3s and get a few steals, but he's too big a question mark to consider drafting.

Al Harrington, SF
Now is Harrington's chance to show us what he's got. Given the crappiness of Atlanta's team, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get close to 40 mpg, which could make just about anyone a fantasy stud. It would be nice if his game was more well-rounded, though. He won't hit too many 3s or block many shots. His FG% has always been strong, but if he's chucking away, it could take a hit. Don't get carried away and take him in the fourth round, but he should be solid in the sixth.

Antoine Walker, F
If only it weren't for those pesky percentages, Walker might be a first round pick this year. Atlanta should be just as bad as the expansion Bobcats, and 'Toine is their only proven player. He averaged more than 40 mpg his last three seasons in Boston, and don't be surprised to see him among the league leaders again. He's actually expected and encouraged to fire away at will, and will likely have the ball in his hands a whole lot, and it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he averages near 25 ppg. And he'll probably throw in about 9 rpg, a couple of 3s, around 5 assists and 1.5 spg. Who else can give you that kind of production? But those percentages ... he was a respectable 43% in Dallas last year, but once he starts taking 20-25 shots per game, that will sink back toward the 39% of his last two seasons in Boston. And he's been going to the same free throw shooting clinic as Tim Duncan, because his formerly acceptable 70% clip sunk to 55% last year. You have to hope he can at least get that to 65% or so, but no guarantees. If he could shoot free throws he'd be the perfect person to team with Shaq in the third round, but putting those two together on your team WILL put you in last place in FT%. So maybe if you've got Yao, think about 'Toine in the third.

Jason Collier, C
Surprisingly enough, Collier didn't totally suck when given a chance to play at the end of the season. 11/5.6 with less than a block and a steal isn't anything to write home about, but it's better than most thought he was capable of. Interesting note: in four seasons, he's played a total of 81 games. You obviously don't want him.

Tony Delk, G
Delk could be someone to keep an eye on, but his preseason injury leaves him as a reserve at the beginning of the season. Still, Kenny Anderson just doesn't have much left in the tank, and if Delk could get 30 mpg, especially on a team as weak as the Hawks, he could help out enough in 3s and steals to be worth at least a bench spot.

Josh Childress, GF
The Hawks were ready to hand him the starting job, but he just couldn't step up and take it. On the Hawks. That means he's really not ready yet, so don't worry about him.

Boris Diaw, GF
Actually averaged 25 mpg last year, but really did nothing with it. Couldn't average 5 ppg or a steal or a block, nothing. Until he shows anything at all, forget about him.

Predrag Drobjnak, C
The Drobber might actually be worth something this year. As we all know, the Hawks flat out suck, and Walker and Harrington won't be able to score every point. The Drobber's a good fit here as he's a chucker himself, averaging nearly 8 shots per game in his career in less than 20 mpg. Impressive considering he's never been a top option. It should be noted that he doesn't rebound or block particularly well for a center, but when Collier goes down, and with only Kevin Willis also around, the Drobber could see some serious time and have minimal value.

Charlotte Bobcats

Brevin Knight, PG
Man, I have to do the Hawks and 'Cats back to back? Ugh. A Steve Buckhantz favorite, Knight won the 'Cats first PG competition. And you know, he might actually be worth drafting. He did average 8.2 apg his rookie season in only 31 mpg with Cleveland. Last year with the Wiz he averaged 3.2 apg in just under 19 mpg. He's also a good thief, with a career average of 1.8 spg in just 24 mpg. He won't score, hit 3s or rebound, but there are worse people to plug into your lineup when injuries hit than a PG who gets assists and steals.

Gerald Wallace, SF
The popular pick to be the productive fantasy guy on the Bobcats. He certainly showed glimpses in Sacramento, and the Bobcats signed him to an extension, so they like him. Will your fantasy team like him? Possibly, but don't get carried away. He did shoot 36% last year and is known to have just about the worst shooting form in the league. So forget about help in 3s, and he's a career 51% free throw shooter, so he could cripple you there. Those are reasons enough to stay away. He should score at least 14-15 ppg and get some steals, but if you take him before the 9th round, you're really reaching.

Jason Kapono, SF
The lineup isn't set in Charlotte and really, none of these guys are going to be worth having, but hey, we've got a job to do here. Kapono could start at SF and will be another one of those nice shooting white guys who gets nothing in the hustle cats, a la Harpring, Van Horn, Szczerbiak. Don't draft him, but if he gets off to a nice start and can establish himself, he could be extremely helpful in 3PM.

Emeka Okafor, FC
OK, he's obviously going to be the productive fantasy guy on the Bobcats. He'll be starting from day 1 and should be one of the top scoring options, as well as a force on the boards and in the blocks column. There's a chance he could be a not-so-poor man's Ben Wallace if things break right, as he could average double digit rebounds and close to 3 bpg, and with better scoring (but just as bad FT%). It's always scary to spend a pick in the first half of the draft on a player who hasn't played in an NBA game, but if there's anyone from this year's draft class that should be worth it, it's Emeka.

Primoz Brezec, C
Probably one of the top stories of the preseason, Brezec has gone from a complete unknown to a huge fantasy sleeper. Always be wary of that. Yes, the Pacers liked him and didn't want to lose him, yes the 'Cats have already signed him to an extension, but let's not get carried away. He has plenty of upside, but even depending on him as your #2 center could be dicey. If you love him, take him in the 11th and stash him on the bench until he proves himself.

Jason Hart, PG
The early favorite for the starting PG spot got beat by Brevin. They should split time evenly throughout the year, and it's unlikely Hart will have any value.

Eddie House, SG
I plan on keeping an eye on him, at least. Showed he could score (but certainly not shoot) with the Clippers, and is one of those guys who if given the time will get enough 3s and steals to give him some value. It's possible Wallace could shift to SF and House could inherit the SG slot, and if that's the case, he'd be worth picking up if he is getting 30 mpg.

Melvin Ely, FC
He was a lottery pick just a couple years ago and he showed some ability with the Clips. If Brezec falters and Ely steps in as the starting center, he could have at least a bit of value.

Brandon Hunter, PF
A rebounding machine in the mold of Danny Fortson. It will take more minutes than he'll get to make an impact.

Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade, PG
It's not that Wade isn't right on the doorstep of becoming a great player, it's just that he's not the best fantasy option yet. With Shaq in town it should keep him on the outside more, but he should still be able to slash some. Don't expect anything more than 6 apg, as Wade will probably see lots of time at the 2 with Damon Jones at the 1. A modest increase in his numbers is to be expected, and it looks like he might just be a step below Ron Artest this year. That should put him solidly in the fourth, but someone will probably jump the gun.

Eddie Jones, SG
Jones averaged a career high 2.2 3pg last year and with Shaq drawing double and triple teams Jones should be able to continue to fire away at will. His FG% will probably still hover around 42% -- not terrible, but not great -- and he is certainly not the same guy who once averaged 2.7 spg (a career low 1.1 last year). He's still a solid free throw shooter and should score around 18 ppg. He's been completely healthy two out of the last three years, so there's a decent amount to like. He's no stud, but he's a sneaky pick in the middle rounds.

Rasual Butler, GF
If you don't like the NBA, you should at least appreciate it for the names. Rasual? Really? Anyway … hard to know if he'll stick in the starting lineup, but he shot 46% from long distance last year, averaging 1.1 3pg in only 15 mpg. That's mighty impressive. He's got great scoring ability, and even though he won't give you much in the other categories, if he can stay on the court for 32 mpg or so, he should be worth a very late round pick.

Udonis Haslem, PF
He won't score too much and Shaq could steal lots of his rebounds. And he won't block shots, either. Hard working player, but I’m not a huge fan and think Christian Laettner will find a way to take a lot of his PT.

Shaquille O'Neal, C
The most important number when discussing the Daddy is 67. That's the number of games he's appeared in the past three years. He says he's motivated and in his best shape in years, so if you think he can turn that 67 into a 77, then go ahead and take him in the first round. Yeah yeah, we know all about his free throw woes, which sunk to an incredibly awful 49% last year, but you can win a league with 6 in FG% and 7 in FT%, so you can win a league with 12 in FG% and 1 in FT%. You're going to have to be pretty perfect everywhere else, but Shaq is a good start. He should get back to at least 25 ppg this year and 12 rpg and 3 bpg wouldn't be a surprise either. He gets a decent number of assists and steals for a big man, too. If you pass on him, do it because you think he'll be injured, not because of the free throws.

Damon Jones, PG
The guy was an assist machine with the Bucks last year, averaging nearly 6pg in just 25 minutes. Expect him to see a lot of time at PG with Wade shifting over to SG. Just enough time to make you think he might have some value, but not quite enough for it to actually happen.

Wesley Person, SG
All it takes is an opportunity, remember that. You shouldn’t draft Person, obviously, but you should remember that in 2001 he averaged nearly 2 3pg and 15 ppg on 49.5% shooting. He's a career 42% three-point shooter, so if he can find his way on to the court, he'll have some value there.

Christian Laettner, FC
I admit it, I'm a Christian Laettner fan. I know he's not fantasy gold, and that he looks like Richie Tenenbaum, but he's a smart player who can help out in a variety of ways. He's too old, though, to play more than 30 mpg and that should keep him off your radar.

Michael Doleac, C
He'll be very solid in his role as one of the two tall, creaky white guys coming off the Miami bench. Has shown flashes in the past, but even in the event of a Shaq injury it's hard to see him being worth anything.

Orlando Magic

Steve Francis, PG
He will most certainly be looking for redemption after last year's extremely disappointing season. He's a pretty safe bet to return to his numbers of two years ago, or perhaps best them slightly, but he's 27 years old and has been in the league 5 years and that's as good as it will get. 21 ppg, 6.5 apg, 6.5 rpg, 1.2 3pg and almost 2 steals is pretty damn good, though. If he can return to his career mark of 43% from the field he should be well worth a second round pick.

Cuttino Mobley, SG
One of those players that always seems to slip because we know what his upside is. He ended the season the 36th ranked player last year, but almost certainly lasted until at least the late 4th round. He'll be with his old running mate Steve Franchise, so his adjustment to Orlando shouldn't be too bad. He might have to worry about a crowded backcourt with Jameer Nelson, Keith Bogans and Hedo Turkoglu, though. Once Grant Hill goes down it should open up some time, but Mobley averaged more than 40 mpg the last three years and it's hard to see that trend continuing. So bump his numbers down a bit and think about him starting in the 5th.

Grant Hill, SF
47 games in the last four seasons. That's all should need to know. If he stays healthy enough to play in even 65 games this season, it will be one of the most unlikely events of the NBA season. Yeah, there's a chance he could be an asset, but if you take him before filling out your entire starting lineup, you will be disappointed.

Dwight Howard, PF
The preseason is one thing. NBA players don't try in the preseason. They rarely try in the regular season until the last five minutes of a game. I'm not big on taking unnecessary risks, so Howard's not exactly my type of player. I'd rather have P.J. Brown or Troy Murphy. I'm willing to believe this kid will be a star, but I'm not willing to believe he'll be much better than those two guys this year.

Kelvin Cato, FC
He gets a handful of blocks and rebounds, so teams that are weak there sometimes want to think about giving him a spot, but it's best you don't.

Jameer Nelson, PG
The Magic love the rookie and as long as he's not over-matched early on, expect him to get 15-20 mpg throughout the season. Still not draftable.

Hedo Turkoglu, GF
One of the most consistently overrated players in the league. Still, his contract ensures that when Grant Hill goes down it will likely be him that inherits the starting role. That could make him worth a late-round flyer, but he's still not a savior by any means.

Keith Bogans, GF
The second-round pick showed some real promise last year. In January he averaged 11.4/5.2 with 1.9 3pg on 47% shooting. Turkoglu's arrival means he won't have a bigger role this year, which is too bad.

Tony Battie, C
Coaches seem to like him, but he's been an absolute bust since being the 5th overall pick back in 1997. No value whatsoever.

Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas, PG
He is Gilbert Arenas, and he will drive the lane. He will also act like a complete lunatic, hoist horribly ill-advised shots, and try to come back early from the same injury 14 times. The numbers themselves are awesome, as he should average 20/5/5 with great 3s and steals. If he shoots 39% again that will hurt, but with Jamison around hopefully he'll defer to higher percentage shots a bit more. He's not quite at Ron Artest's level of insanity, but he's pretty damn close. He'll be gone by the end of the third round, as well he should be, but be prepared a bumpy ride.

Larry Hughes, SG
When Arenas and Stackhouse were down last year, Hughes came up … huge. Hmm, didn't even mean to do that. His 40% shooting wasn't too hot, but 19/5 with nice steals and 3s from someone who likely was a FA at some point is quite nice. But this year he could be back to being the third option and his numbers should take a hit. But he'll find ways to have some value, even though he's no sure thing to be in the lineup every day himself. You could do worse starting in the 8th round.

Jarvis Hayes, SF
Hayes had a great start to his rookie but went into a shooting funk after the first dozen or so games and never emerged. He's looked great this preseason, but he plays on a team with three guys (Arenas, Hughes, Jamison) who love to shoot the ball. So don't expect him to do all that much scoring. He was a decent source of steals, but if he's not shooting and scoring, he's not going to do much for you.

Antawn Jamison, F
With his worst season (statistically) since his rookie year, Jamison did more for his repuation than any previous season. Now that he's back as a starter and a focal point on his team, he should approach his Golden State numbers with around 20 ppg and 7rpg on very nice shooting. His lack of steals, blocks and 3s puts him in Zack Randolph territory, but a step below, so think of him a round later.

Kwame Brown, PF
He was putting it together towards the end of last year, he really was. But now a broken foot will cause him to miss at least the first few weeks and he's sure to be plenty rusty after he comes back. It might not be until January that he's worth using. But he is playing for a contract, and he should be better than ever in the second half of the season. It's hard to draft him now knowing that you won't get anything out of him for a while, but come February he could be putting up 15/10s on a regular basis. And yes, I know I'm crazy.

Juan Dixon, G
With Arenas, Hughes and Peeler all out for the opener, Juan might have a nice game. But that's about it. The person most responsible for my greatest moments in sports fandom is a shockingly bad 30% 3-point shooter for his career. He is one of the best pickpockets in the league, but that's the only help he'll give you. Just not someone who should be out on the court for more than 25 minutes a night.

Anthony Peeler, SG
Peeler should bring some groin-elbowing toughness to the Wiz this year. But that's about it. And that's only a category in very, very deep fantasy leagues, so you can probably safely avoid him.

Jared Jeffries, SF
Jeffries always has his hands around the ball, but he's usually taking a horrible shot with it, dropping it or tipping it somewhere. He's got the potential to be a jack-of-all-trades guy that is useful for fantasy purposes, but that won't happen this year.

Etan Thomas, FC
I'm worried about Etan. He's got an abdominal strain, which is one of those nagging injuries that can last all year. It's what Bobby Jackson had last year and kept him out half the season. Assuming he can start the season, Thomas should see plenty of time with Kwame out. He was a nice fill-in last year, offering nice help in boards and blocks. The Wiz just gave him nearly $40 million, so he's obviously a part of their plan. If you like him, go for it in the last round.

Brendan Haywood, C
He can look so promising sometimes and so clueless other times. Basically like everyone else on the Wizards. If he could play even 30 mpg he'd be worth a spot for his help in boards, blocks and FG%. Hard to see that happening with the crowded Wizards frontcourt, though.

2004 Position Review: Centers, Part 2

At the end of every draft you’ll find one or two teams with an open spot at C, taking anyone who’s 7 ft tall and/or from eastern europe. Don’t be one of those teams! Instead, take one of these guys:

Tier 5: The Upsiders.

13. Eddy Curry (CHI) – I’ll admit it. I think Curry could be one of the best sleeper picks in the league this year if he falls far enough. Sure, he won’t get double-digit rebounds or more than 1 block per game, but he’s flat nasty on the offensive end. He’s a near lock for 15 points a game this year, maybe more, and if he gets 8 boards and 1.5 blocks, isn’t that pretty good for a center?
Take Him: In the 6th. He was the 9th-highest scorer last year among centers.
But Remember: You’ll need some help in blocks and boards from non-traditional spots.

14. Chris Bosh (TOR) – Very quietly, Bosh was a top-20 center last year. This year he could be a top 10 center, just as quietly. Look for Magloire-esque numbers out of Bosh this year, maybe averaging a double-double.
Take Him: In the 6th. He won’t blow you away, but he’ll be solid.
But Remember: You never know who’s gonna have that sophomore slump.

15. Nene (DEN) – While Nene didn’t slump his sophomore year, he didn’t really improve his numbers at all. Nonetheless, he’s a steals machine, something you won’t find much of at the C position.
Take Him: In the 8th. He’s only 22, and could be ready to improve his stats.
But Remember: That’s a crowded front court he’s playing with in Denver.

16. Stromile Swift (MEM) – Boy, I was big-time disappointed when he didn’t get moved in the offseason. Swift could be a top-5 (yes, 5) center in fantasy if he played 35 minutes a game. Instead, he plays under 20 in share-the-floor Memphis, meaning his incredible 3.71 blocks per 48 minutes are whittled down to under 2.
Take Him: Late. He’s worth holding onto in case someone has to miss some time in the Memphis frontcourt.
But Remember: He’s not gonna get enough playing time to be valuable unless that happens.

17. Emeka Okafor (CHA) – Why not? He’s gonna get plenty of minutes, he claims to be healthy, and he should block enough shots to deserve a spot in your starting lineup.
Take Him: In the 8th. Rookies. Who knows?
But Remember: That back could flare up at any time.

Tier 5: The Vets

18. Mark Blount (BOS) – OK, this one makes no sense. Seattle’s 2nd-round draft pick in 1997, Blount doesn’t make the team, then catches on with the Celtics in 2000, and never scores more than 5 points per game in Boston. Then last year, after a promising first half of 8.6/5.6, after the All-Star break, he explodes! 13.5 points, 10.3 boards, 1.3 stl, 1.4 blk, and a disgusting 56% from the field. WHAT?
Take Him: In the 6th or 7th. I mean, I can’t explain it either, but you gotta take a shot.
But Remember: The first 28 years of his life.

19. Erick Dampier (DAL) – Nope. Don’t like this one bit. You ain’t foolin’ me, Dampier, you’re still a lazy, out-of-shape, injury prone center. Then again, you do get a lot of blocks…
Take Him: In the 8th, and no earlier. He does have decent upside – even though that was the last tier.
But Remember: He could be the first player drafted in the first 8 rounds to see the waiver wire. That’s not true, but still.

20. Kurt Thomas (NYK) – A nice, safe late pick. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he hasn’t missed more than 5 games since 1998, gets decent points, boards, and blocks. And that’s all you need from a second center.
Take Him: In the 8th-10th rounds. Solid.
But Remember: I said solid, not spectacular. What you see is what you get – PJ Brown at center.

21. Chris Mihm (LAL) – Mihm could very quietly be a very solid center for your team if Vlade is out for a long time. He’s never seen more than 22 mpg, but with Divac out, it’s him and Medvedenko. If Mihm manages to find 32 minutes a night, he’ll give you 12/8 with 2 blocks. You could do much worse.
Take Him: Late, then sit him on the bench for the first week or two to see if he gets minutes.
But Remember: Short leash with this guy.

Tier 6: The Best of The Rest.

22. Alonzo Mourning (NJN) – I mean, maybe, right? He’s been playing this preseason…who knows.
23. Clifford Robinson (GSW) – Yes, he’s still in the league, and yes, he still shoots 3’s, but that’s it. Worth owning, though.
24. Brian Grant (LAL) - He’s not a center, he won’t get you 10 points or even 8 boards at this point.
25. Mehmet Okur (UTH) – Fun Fact: He’s from Yalova Turkey. That might be so, but Ilova Roast Beef. Don’t draft him until very late.

Tier 7: Don’t. Just Don’t.

26. Kelvin Cato (ORL) – He always looks THIS close to being an amazing player, but he can never put it together.
27. Brendan Haywood (WAS) – A big weenie. Take him if you like those.
28. Etan Thomas (WAS) – Hurt.
29. Christian Laettner (MIA) – Come on.
30. Michael Olowakandi (MIN) – I’ve given up on this guy. You should, too.

2004 Position Review: Centers, Pt. 1

Ah, centers. The make or break of every fantasy team. Every single center in the league is overrated, overvalued, and will be taken too high on draft day. But you need ‘em. You want ‘em. So you, too will have to take a run-of-the-mill center when there’s a stud SG just waiting to be taken. What are the options? Let’s see.

Tier One: The Best, Jerry, The Best!

1. Tim Duncan (SAS) – He’s a top-5 player in the league, and his center eligibility makes him a top-5 player in fantasy. He’s a huge plus in points, boards, blocks, and FG%, and passes very well for a big man. Of course, there’s that little matter of shooting under 60% from the line last year, which was beyond ridiculous. Look for that to come back close to 70% this year, making him a solid 7-category center, possibly the only one.
Take Him: As high as 2nd overall.
But Remember: He missed significant time last year for the first time since ’98, and playing in the Olympics may have worn him down a bit. But he’s still a stud.

2. Shaquille O’Neal (MIA) – Watch out now. Shaq is back, and he’s in better shape than ever, and he’s the unquestioned #1 threat on his team. Throw last year out the window – He is THE best scorer from the C position in the league, rebounds like a monster, gets blocks, and throws up a 58% FG%. Unfortunately, there’s this rumor going around that he misses FT’s fairly regularly.
Take Him: In the first round. He is an animal.
But Remember: He’s missed 15 games each of the last 3 years. Maybe not being overweight will help that.

3. Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) – Everyone loves Dirk, but he was a bit of a disappointment last year for his fantasy owners, regressing in points (-3.3), boards (-1.2), 3’s (- 0.6), assists and steals. He’s going to be dealing with either a rookie PG (Harris) or a shoot-first PG (Terry). Neither bodes well for the Diggler.
Take Him: In the first round. You still can’t beat that kind of 3-pt shooting from the C position, and he’ll contribute in 6-7 categories.
But Remember: Last year could be an anomaly…or the start of a trend.

4. Yao Ming (HOU) – Here’s a guy who could be worth a top-5 pick this year…or he could be worth no more than a late 2nd rounder. Last year’s stats (17 pts, 9 rbs, 2 blk) were good, but not first round good, as he only helps in 5 categories. For a supposedly great passer, he still hasn’t averaged more than 1.7 assists. But who knows what his ceiling is? How much will he improve over last year? We say: 21 ppg, 11 rpg, 2.3 blk, 3 ast, 51% FG, 80% FT.
Take Him: Late first/early second. He’s a risk, but at some point his low outweighs other’s highs.
But Remember: He’s got pretty much a brand new team around him, so who knows how he fits.

Tier Two: How long can you wait to take a center?

5. Brad Miller (SAC) – He’ll be the first guy taken not to score 15 ppg this year, but he might be worth it. He helps in 7 categories, but isn’t dominant in any of them. He set a career high in boards, assists, and blocks last year, but that might just be the norm now that he’s in Sacramento.
Take Him: Late in the second/early in the third.
But Remember: He also set a career high in turnovers last year, so he may not get the ball as much now, especially if Webber’s back.

Tier Three: Apparently, you can wait a very long time.

6. Jamal Magloire (NO) – He’s gotten better every year, and last year he got better every month, averaging 21 ppg and 12 rpg in April. Don’t look for that kind of production, but 15/12, with 1+ blocks and OK percentages makes him a pretty nice fantasy center.
Take Him: In the fourth round. Consistency is the key.
But Remember: His stat improvements have come with more minutes – he averaged 34 last year, how much more can they give him?

7. Rasheed Wallace (DET) – OK, he’s not a center, duh, but he’s eligible in some leagues so we’ll put him here. Rasheed helps – but not a ton – in 6 categories, only hurting you in the %’s. His low rebound numbers make us hesitant to put him any higher as a center.
Take Him: In the fourth. You can’t help but like those 3’s from the center spot.
But Remember: In Detroit last year he scored under 14 ppg.

8. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE) – Big Z has been healthy 2 years in a row now. You can’t watch him play without thinking each play could be his last, but eventually you’ve gotta take the plunge. He’s a 15/8 center with 2 blocks and decent percentages. There aren’t too many of those out there.
Take Him: In the fourth. And cross your fingers.
But Remember: Creak. Creak. Creak. Those are his knees.

Tier Four: In my country, the shot blocks you!

9. Theo Ratliff (POR) – He won’t shoot or rebound much, and he won’t help even a little bit in any other category. But when you block over 3 shots a game, that’s enough to get you drafted in the middle rounds of a fantasy draft. He is absolutely dominant in this category, plus last year, due to his trade, he played in 85 games!
Take him: In the fifth. If you’ve neglected blocks early, here’s your chance to turn a negative into a positive.
But Remember: Prior to 2002, he had a 4-year stretch where he didn’t play even 60 games. An injury risk.

10. Marcus Camby (DEN) – Up until last year, he spent more time waiting by the mailbox for his ESPN the Magazine than he did playing basketball. Finally he came through with a career-high 72 games, and had nice impact on fantasy teams, blocking and rebounding very well.
Take him: In the sixth. On the right team, he can do very well.
But Remember: Make sure you have a backup center for his inevitable injuries.

11. Samuel Dalembert (PHI) – The most overrated player of the draft, he can be seen going as high as the 4th round in some drafts. Don’t be a sucker. Yes he’ll block shots, but he won’t be the 12/12/4 guy you saw in April. As a started last year, he averaged 9/9/2.7, and to expect much more than that, well, is a little ambitious.
Take Him: In the sixth. Any earlier and you’re passing up too much talent.
But Remember: He is a nice player, but he’s not the second coming of Dikembe.

12. Rasho Nesterovic – To hear Stephen A. Smith say it, it sounds like Rasho had an awful year last year. But really, he set career highs in blocks (2.0) and boards (7.7). His scoring, however, few 2.5 pts to under 9 ppg.
Take Him: In the eighth. Nice fantasy filler, and a decent second center.
But Remember: He shot under 50% from the line … how is that even legal?

Northwest Division

The Wolves are obviously the heavy favorites there, as they ride the back of fantasy god KG. The Jazz and Nuggets are two of the popular picks to make some noise this year, and both have very balanced squads. The Blazers will try to stay out of jail, and the Sonics will try to stay out of last place.

Denver Nuggets

Andre Miller, PG
Miller overcame some early season struggles and that pesky Earl Boykins to finish as the 21st most valuable player in fantasy last year. A lot of that is due to his durability, as he dropped to 38th when you look at averages, but durabillity is certainly something that shouldn't be underestimated. He's missed three games in his five year career, and you have to like that. Those of you hoping he gets back to the 11 apg he averaged during his last season in Cleveland, forget about it. Besides having fewer jump shooters around him, Miller sometiems plays the 2 in Denver, so be happy with the 6-7 apg he'll give you. His FG% is very nice for a guard, but doesn't make up for his lack of 3PM. He may not be the most exciting pick, but he's as solid as they come and makes a decent third rounder and a great fourth rounder.

Voshon Lenard, SG
By now you know how Lenard operates. Most of the time he's a middling SG who will help only in 3PM, but for one month each season he's one of the league's most valuable fantasy commodoties. That was December last year, when he came out of nowhere to average nearly 20 ppg on 47% shooting with 2.6 3pg and even 1.5 spg. That's just about as good as Michael Redd, right there. But he will only do that for one month. After the all-star break he was good for 11 ppg on 39% shooting. This makes him a very risky pick, but you might want to spend a late-rounder on him just in case the hot streak comes at the beginning of the season. And the first time you see him put up a 27-point, 5 3PM performance snatch him up and ride the wave.

Carmelo Anthony, SF
What's that in your bag, 'Melo? It's very comforting to see that the "it's not mine, it's my friend's!" excuse is still going strong and is being used by millionaires. In any case, you probably don't want 'Melo on your team. His name value is going to inflate his perceived value and he's really just not that much of an asset. Teams with lots of players with name value whose strongest category is points don't win titles. And points was the only category in which 'Melo made a significant contribution last year. He didn't kill you anywhere, but didn't really help you anywhere, either. He's obviously young and can and will get better, but don't take him before the fourth round, or you'll regret it.

Kenyon Martin, PF
A tough one to gauge. He plays in a crowded frontcourt, but you've got to think Camby breaks down at some point this year, opening K-Mart up for the 35 mpg we've become accustomed to. He should be a great fit on the up-tempo Nuggets, not much of a change from the Kidd-led Nets, but you never know. His career stats show pretty much what to expect: a very nice FG%, a very not nice FT%, solid rebounds, great steals for a PF, a few blocks and a handful of assists. He just doesn't seem like a 20 ppg scorer, but that's fine. Must note that he missed 17 games last year, 28 total in his previous three years, and missed the end of his senior year in college. That bumps him from the third to the fourth round.

Marcus Camby, C
Camby played in more games last year than the previous two seasons combined. Treat this as a fluke. This was a guy who couldn't manage to appear in more than 63 games in his first 7 seasons. He has a LONG track record of fragility, and one healthy year (where he still missed 10 games) does not change that, especially considering he's 30 years old. There's no denying that his rebounds, blocks and steals made him extremely valuable last year, but don't fall for the trap again. If he's your #1 center, you are going to be in for a long season. If he's there after the sixth round he's worth taking a chance on, but it's doubtful he will be, and that's probably for the best.

Earl Boykins, PG
Another one of those players whose fantasy relevance is measured only by how much value he takes away from someone else. In the early stages of last season he was taking plenty away from Andre Miller, but even in his best month (November) he averaged on 13 ppg, 4 apg with surprisingly few steals on 42% shooting. Fun player to watch, not fantasy worthy.

Rodney White, GF
This guy. Before signing a contract in the offseason he gets arrested for driving around D.C. firing guns into the air. And he actually puked on the court once. Denver doesn't seem to want to give him a role, and it's hard to blame them. Even with minutes, he'd be a decent scorer, but not much else.

Nene Hilario, FC
A disappointment last year, as he didn't really make any marked improvements over his rookie season. Now he's coming off the bench and will part of a three-man rotation with K-Mart and Camby. But, Camby will go down at some point and I expect Nene to come up big when that happens, and to run with the starting job. He doesn't get as many blocks as you'd like from a center, but he gets steals like a PG and his FG% is top-notch. He'll be below most people's radar and you should be able to sneak him by in the last round or two. Do so.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Sam Cassell, PG
You can't argue with the numbers, that's the great thing about fantasy. And Cassell was the 6th best player last year. Obviously that doesn't make him a first round pick this year, but if people think last year was a total fluke, they could be in for a surprise. His playoff injury might scare some people away, but he's managed to stay relatively healhty in his older age, missing only 20 games in the last five seasons. His numbers last year were almost idential to his 2002 numbers, with a significant uptick in assists and FG%. He won't be the 6th best player again, but if he's sitting there in the third round, and you need a PG, you have to take him. Don't let his contract squabbles scare you.

Trenton Hassell, SG
He's the Wolves version of Bruce Bowen, without the 3PM. Pass.

Latrell Sprewell, GF
A pretty unexciting but safe pick. You know what to expect, which is pretty solid numbers across the board, but no real help in any one place. Because of his name recognition he might go a round or two earlier than he should, so let someone else take him in the sixth or seventh.

Kevin Garnett, F
Yeah, like I'll be telling you anything you don't already know. If you have the #1 pick and don't take KG, you're just a damn fool.

Michael Olowokandi, C
Just give it up. In his six seasons, he's missed at least half the season three times. He's a center who has never shot 44%. His 2002 season with the Clips was nice, with 12/9 and 2.2 bpg. But last season was just an all-out disaster. If you've always liked him and think this is "the year" you can give it a shot in the 10th round or so, but if he's one of your top two centers, you could be playing the waiver wire all year long.

Troy Hudson, PG
Last year was a lost season for Hudson, and now he's just the second man off the bench. He could emerge as a Bobby Jackson-type threat for the Wolves and could still have some value if he gets around 27-28 mpg, but it's doubtful. If Cassell goes down and Hudson's finds his way into the starting lineup, he could be a top-10 PG.

Fred Hoiberg, SG
I actually had Fred Hoiberg on my team at one point last season. That was sad.

Wally Szczerbiak, SF
He was one of the most valuable FG% players before last season's 45% clunker. He's still a career 50% shooter, but he needs to shoot a lot to help you, because he gives you absolutely nothing in the hustle categories or rebounds. And that's when he was getting 35 mpg. Nothing more than a very late rounder.

Eddie Griffin, F
Everybody has a list of players that have screwed their fantasy teams over, and they vow to never have those players anywhere near their team again. Well, my list is called "The Eddie Griffin List."

Portland Trail Blazers

Damon Stoudamire, PG
Again, the numbers don't lie: Damon was the 38th best player in the league last year. And he most likely did while totally stoned off his ass, too. That's impressive. Nick Van Exel is around this season to create a crowded backcourt, and Stoudamire is only one season removed from a disastrous year where he didn't even average 7 ppg. Still, Van Exel is usually banged up, Stoudamire did nothing to lose PT, and he gets enough 3s and assists to give him value even at 30 mpg. I wouldn't mind having him on my team as an 8th or 9th rounder.

Derek Anderson, SG
Anderson's a decent enough utility player. Again, because of the crowded backcourt he might not see 35 mpg this year, but Cheeks seems to like him, probably because he's the lone sane player on the team. His 38% shooting last year was rather brutal, but he chips in in 3PM and steals. Very similar to Stoudamire just with fewer assists, so look at him a round or two later.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim, PF
A huge question mark. It looks like he'll begin the season in the starting lineup, but this year at SF, and with Darius Miles chomping at the bit behind him. He was a flat-out disaster with Portland last year, putting up Corliss Williamson-esque numbers, not what his owners who took him in the third round were expecting. He was one of the most consistent and predictable players in the league before the trade, good for 20/9/3 with excellent percentages. Now, who knows? He's got too great a track record to slip much past the sixth round, and chances are he'll be either a great bargain or a bust, even in that round.

Zach Randolph, PF
He's basically what Abdur-Rahim used to be. He'll give you 20/10 with great percentages, but don't expect anything in the hustle categories or too many assists. This makes him an overvalued property, as points and rebounds are the two most available resources. If you have Baron Davis or Ron Artest on your team he might make a good pick in the fourth round.

Theo Ratliff, FC
Has a reputation as a fragile player but has managed to stay completely healhty the past two seasons. In fact, he played in 85 games last year! If you get him for a full, healthy season, he will almost single-handedly win you blocks. After coming to Portland last year he averaged an insane 4.4 bpg. In every season he's played at least 30 mpg he's averaged at least 3 bpg. And he better, because that's all you'll get. Sure, he'll shoot around 50% from the field, but he doesn't shoot enough to make a huge impact. And despite all the blocks he's just an average rebounder for a center and forget about getting any assists. If you go very small early on, you have to start thinking about him in the fifth round, maybe even earlier.

Nick Van Exel, PG
He'll be coming off the bench at the start of the season and is coming off a year in which he played in only 39 games. Not the greatest recipe for fantasy success. In his time with the Mavs he proved he could be a useful commodity even with less than 30 mpg, but that was in the Mavs high-octane offense. If he can get that 25-30 mpg with Portland he should be helpful enough in 3s and assists to merit a roster spot. If Anderson or Stoudamire go down, he could have some serious value, but you can't really use anything more than a very late round pick on him.

Darius Miles, GF
Don't buy into the Darius Miles hype. He was pretty solid once he came to Portland last year, but he doesn't bring too much to the table. First off, he'll begin the season as Abdur-Rahim's backup, although that could certainly change. Other than that, Miles is just an ordinary player. He's not a long-distance threat, he won't get you many assists or steals, and his blocks have gone from 1.5 to .8 since his rookie season. He's a career 47% shooter, so that's nice, but he's a career 59% shooter from the line, which is very not nice. At his best he doesn't seem like much more than Tim Thomas, which as we know, isn't all that great.

Joel Przybilla, C
He did average 8.4 rpg and 1.4 bpg with Atlanta when given a chance to play last year. But, I mean, c'mon.

Seattle Supersonics

Antonio Daniels, PG
It's not clear who will start the season as Seattle's PG, but look for it to be the veteran Daniels. He had some absolutely monster games, but even in 32 games as a starter he averaged a very modest 10 ppg with 6 apg, with very little 3-point or steals help. He has very nice percentages and his assists will give him value if he is indeed a starter, but don't depend on him too much.

Ray Allen, SG
Look for a monster year from Jesus this season. He's in a contract year and has a lot to prove, especially after this little spat with Kobe. He's also the very clear No. 1 option on this team and is looking to prove himself after last year's injury-marred season. And yes, that is reason for pause, as Allen missed 26 games last year and 13 in 2001. That's a decent sized risk for a potential first round pick, but he should be able to stay relatively healthy this year. He hasn't averaged fewer than 2.5 3pg since 2000, so you know he's one of the best there. He's a career 89% free throw shooter and he gets to the line frequently, so he's one of the best there. He should average close to 25 ppg, so he should be an asset there. Throw in about 5 rpg and 5 apg, a little over a steal, and you've got a stud. He was the 8th ranked player by averages last year and was 6th over the final month. He's not quite in the same category as Kobe or T-Mac, but I'd rather have him than Peja this year.

Rashard Lewis, SF
One of those unexciting fourth round picks. It's probably about time to give up on him getting much better and to just accept what's there. A pretty decent shooting SF who helps out in 3PM and doesn't really hurt you anywhere. There is value in that, in grabbing someone who you know exactly what to expect from, and who has stayed relatively healthy his entire career. He'll probably last until the end of the fourth and ended last season as the 30th best player, so he could be a mini-bargain.

Danny Fortson, FC
The Seattle frontcourt is a mess. It looks like Fortson, Nick Collison, Jerome James and Vitaly Potapenko are fighting for two spots. That's not a competition that inspires hope in Seattle fans. Fortson could end up winning one of those spots and could end up with plenty of value. Remember the beginning of the 2000 season when he averaged 17 ppg and 16 rpg in the first two weeks before getting hurt for the rest of the year? He obviously won't do that again, but he is a proven rebounding stud. He averages 8 rpg for his career in only 21.6 mpg. He won't give you anything else -- really, no assists, steals, blocks, threes, nothing -- but with only 30 mpg, he could average 12 boards and would be worth a spot.

Vitaly Potapenko, C
A center who doesn't rebound or block shots. Or score. Or drive sober.

Luke Ridnour, PG
He just didn't seem ready last year and I can't see him making the leap this season. He'll likely split time with Daniels, leaving them both without much value. There are other PGs I'd like more as a sleeper.

Ronald Murray, SG
He certainly proved that he could be a stud given the opportunity, but the quickness in which he fell out of favor in Seattle certainly raises questions. He's not likely to get the PT to make a huge impact again, he'll certainly have plenty of value he plays 35 mpg, but you can't go into the season counting on him to be a key part of your team.

Vladimir Radmanovic, PF
Raise your hand if you've been burned by this guy. Thought so. Incredible fantasy upside, but so wildly inconsistent. He still averaged nearly 2 3pg last year, and that alone helped him finish the season ranked in the top 75. He'll be coming off the bench to start this season as it seems like the Sonics have given up trying him at PF, which is probably for the best as he's just not a big rebounder. It might be tough for him to find PT behind Lewis and Allen, and given his inconsistent past, don't make him more than a late-round flyer.

Nick Collison, PF
He's got as good a chance as anyone to emerge as a starter in the Sonics' frontcourt, but who knows what he'll give you? At only 6'9" he's not that big, but he uses his body well. Don't expect many blocks, but if he plays he should get his share of boards and chip in some points. He's got Troy Murphy upside, which can be worth something, and the Sonics are probably eager to find out what they've got with him, so he could be worth a 10th rounder or so.

Utah Jazz

Carlos Arroyo, PG
Did his Olympic exposure turn him from a sleeper to a bust? Quite possibly. Arroyo is a nice little player, but he doesn't do two things that you want a good fantasy PG to do, and that's shoot the 3 and get steals. In 28 mpg last year he averaged just 0.5 3pg and 0.9 spg. He's young and can surely improve, and he probably will, but if he goes in the 6th round, it's probably a round or two too early.

Gordan Giricek, GF
If you're desperate for 3s, you could do worse than Giricek. It's of some concern that he averaged only 0.6 3pg after coming to Utah last year, and it seems like he was much more free to fire away in Orlando. He does nothing else for your fantasy squad, and, really, shouldn't be on it.

Andrei Kirilenko, PF
They don't come much better than this one right here. Last year's #3 ranked player was almost a positive in every category, as he was barely below average (by the skin of his teeth) in FG%, 3PM and assists. Of course, he isn't much of an asset anywhere but steals and blocks, but he is so huge in those categories, especially as a forward. Team him with a good PG and C and you should have those two categories locked up. His numbers have gone up each year (except his harrowing drop in FG% last year, which is worrisome) and things should only get better. If you have the 8th or 9th pick in the draft and he's still there, feel very, very lucky.

Carlos Boozer, PF
Are you saying "Boo" or "Boo-zer"? In Cleveland it's "boo" but for fantasy players last year it was certainly the latter. He finished as the 33rd best player and certainly wasn't taken in the first three rounds of any drafts. The secret's out now, though. He shouldn't have any problem adjusting to Utah, as he should be higher on the scoring options there than he would have been in Cleveland. He's a career 53% shooter which is just insane for non-Shaq players in this day and age, and that combined with what should be at least a 16/11 every night will give him plenty of value. If he can boost his assists from 2 to 3 and his steals from 1 to even 1.3, he should be an excellent third round pick.

Mehmet Okur, FC
I thought I made the pick of the draft last year after Mehmet went for 17 points and 4 blocks on 7-10 shooting in the season opener last year. And while he had some nights like that one, he fell out of favor with Larry Brown and was completely worthless by season's end. Now he's a rich man and the starting center of an up and coming team and the pressure's on. If you take his numbers from last year and simply pro-rate them to 33-34 mpg you end up with a line that looks like this: 14.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.4 bpg, .8 spg with 46% and 78%. Who wouldn't want that from the center position? Don't be afraid to grab him in the 6th round.

Raul Lopez, PG
A very nice assist rate, but he's stuck behind Arroyo and seems like a player who's best when getting 20 minutes. That's based on a single season, of course, but he shouldn't be drafted.

Raja Bell, SG
He was on the court for lots of important moments for the Jazz last year and is a key player on their team, but he's not a fantasy option.

Matt Harpring, SF
One of the great surprises of 2002 was one of the great busts of 2003, mainly because of injuries that held him to 31 games. He might come off the bench to start the season, but Jerry Sloan likes him and he should see about 30 mpg, especially if it's only Gordan Giricek he has to battle. He's quite valuable in FG%, but his hustle stats and 3PM are pretty non-existent, which seriously hurts his value. Him and Wally Szczerbiak are basically the same player.

2004 Position Review: Power Forwards, Part 2

We’ll be honest. In a 12-team league, you’re not likely to see more than 15 or so true power forwards taken, because centers are more valuable, and small forwards are deeper, so they usually take up your “F” spot. So in a slightly abbreviated part 2, let’s look at some upsiders and late-round gems that you might be able to grab.

Tier Six: Worth a Shot.
13. Shareef Abdur-Rahim (POR) – First things first: No matter what happens, Reef will not be seeing 30 minutes a night while in Portland. That said, he’s a big-time candidate for a trade early in the year, and if he goes to a team where he will get minutes, he’s a fourth round value. If you have a bench spot open, he might be the guy to sit on it for awhile.
Take Him: Late rounds. A nice gamble.
But Remember: He might put up OK numbers in Portland (14 and 6?), but he’s not a guy you wanna stick in your starting lineup. Maybe a utility spot.

14. Vladimir Radmanovic (SEA) – Over a 5-game stretch in January, Rad-man averaged 6 points, 2.8 boards, and had a total of 1 three, 1 steal, and 2 blocks. Then in his next 5 games, he averaged 16.8 points, 6 boards, and had 17 threes, 2 steals, and 3 block. Which one comes to play this year is a total guess, night-in and night-out.
Take Him: Late Rounds. Any big man who shoots 3’s deserves a spot on your roster.
But remember: Read what I just wrote. And take caution.

15. Kwame Brown (WAS) – All you can do at this point is shrug. Who knows with this kid? He’s out for the first part of the season, he’s gonna lose shots to Jamison, and he complains too much. But he’s got a ton of talent. Welcome to Ernie Grunfeld’s world.
Take Him: Late rounds, and be prepared for a headache.
But Remember: This is a contract year, and could be big.

16. Udonis Haslem (MIA) – Haslem has a nice chance to be a decent sleeper this year. If you think Christian Laettner is going to be a stalwart in the Miami frontcourt, you’re either the other contributor to this blog, an idiot, or both. Haslem had his ups and downs last year, but he rebounds like a champ, and playing next to Shaq worked out for Horace Grant, why not Udonis?
Take Him: Late, if at all, he’s more of a guy to keep an eye on early.
But Remember: If he blows up in the first few games, there’s gonna be a race for him. Don’t feel bad taking him with one of your last picks.

17. Dwight Howard (ORL) – I know. I know. It’s only the preseason, and he’s coming outta high school, and no big man does well other than KG coming out of high school, but…man. He looks good. He could average a double-double in his rookie year. He just looks good.
Take Him: Late, very late. Everyone else is afraid of him, but he has the most upside of anyone that late in the draft.
But Remember: You’re gonna have to take the good with the bad, like any rookie high schooler. He’ll have his share of off nights.

2004 Position Review: Power Forwards, Pt. 1

A quick note: Generally, if a guy qualifies at center AND power forward, we’ll put them under the ‘centers’ category. If he qualifies at both forward positions, we probably put them under small forwards. So look there before going, “I can’t believe they didn’t even rank Duncan in the top 10 power forwards!” Anyhow:

Tier One: Wait, you mean they don’t qualify at Center anymore?

1. Elton Brand (LAC) – He’s remarkably consistent. A 20 point, 10 rebound, 2+ blocks guy with nice FG% and decent assists for a big man, and that’s fine with his fantasy owners. Not fine, however, are the 13 and 20 games missed to injury the past two years.
Take Him: Early in the 2nd round. The only thing he won’t do is shoot 3’s. Other than that, he’s fantasy gold.
But Remember: There are plenty of PF’s down the road, and he’s already got an achy knee. That keeps him out of the first round.

2. Jermaine O’Neal (IND) – Well, the charade is over. Jermaine is not a center, and now your fantasy league has figured it out. That doesn’t mean he’s not valuable anymore, just not 1st round valuable. He’ll still get you 20/10 with 2.5 blocks. Don’t look for anymore improvement, though. He’s plateaued, which is fine, but that means less ‘upside’.
Take Him: Right after Brand. They’re almost exactly the same players, stats-wise.
But Remember: His FG% is a bit lower than Brand’s, so he goes 2nd.

3. Ben Wallace (DET) – Here’s the toughest pick for anyone to make in the draft. The guy simply doesn’t score. Sure he managed a career-high in points last year (9.2), but he also had his lowest rebound output since joining the Pistons (12.4). Plus his FT% may be improving, but he’s still not even at (get ready) 50%. He needs to put up 13 boards and 3 blocks – at least – to make himself worth a shot in the mid-second round.
Take Him: In the second, if and only if you’ve got Kobe or McGrady on your team. They’re the best scorers in the first round, so that will make up for his horrific points and percentages.
But Remember: He’s not a center anymore, no matter what the all-star ballot says. That hurts his value plenty.

Tier Two: Up n’ Comers … Or Are They Already Here?

4. Amare Stoudamire (PHO) – This kid is the real deal. Each year so far he’s surpassed expectations, and it’s likely he’ll do it again this year. How the scoring distribution works out in Phoenix will be interesting, but he could be the best pure power forward in the draft. If he does in fact get enough time at center to qualify there, you’re looking at a top 15 player.
Take Him: In the third round, and laugh maniacally when you do.
But remember: He missed over 25 games last year to injury. He came back to play well, and you can’t make a big deal out of it happening once, but still.

5. Pau Gasol (MEM) – In his rookie year, Pau looked like a future fantasy stud. He scored, rebounded, shot over 50%, and had over 2 blocks a game. Now, 2 years later, he’s seeing less time on the court (thank you, Hubie) and as a result, only 1.7 blocks, under 8 boards, and still about 17 points. He’s an asset to be sure, but one can only wonder what he’d be able to do with 38 mpg.
Take Him: In the fourth, maybe early third. He’s still a Top-5 shot blocker among power forwards.
But Remember: He does nothing for you in assists or steals.

6. Zach Randolph (POR) – Rebound the ball. Shoot the ball. Rebound the ball. Shoot the ball. Rebound the ball. Shoot a guy – er, I mean, the ball. That was his brother anyway, right? Anyhow, Zach helps your FG%, points and boards, but that’s really it. Plus when you’re one of the worst behaved guys in Portland, well, that’s saying something.
Take Him: In the third, if you need – you guessed it – points and boards.
But Remember: If his team doesn’t like him so much … why should you?

Tier Three: The Webber Tier.

7. Chris Webber (SAC) – It’s the third round. You’ve got a guard and a center, but you could really use another big man. He’s staring you in the face. Before you know it, you’ve taken him, and you don’t have any idea how it happened, and now you’re running away from him like you’re Brendan Haywood. Too late!
Take Him: Honestly, if you’re confident you can get some other bigs for when he’s hurt later in the draft, the third round is about right for Webber. When he’s healthy, he’s a Top-10 fantasy player. He could honestly be more valuable than the tier 2 guys, but remember…
But Remember: Like I need to tell you? He’s got worse knees than your grandfather. Your dead grandfather. Shazam!

Tier Four: Exhale. Webber’s off the board.

8. Kenyon Martin (DEN) – He could be a tier two guy as well, but we think he’s a notch underneath those guys for a few reasons. One, on a new team, without Jason Kidd, it might take him some time to get used to the offense. Two, he missed 17 games last season. Three, he shoots under 70% from the line. That said, he’s a guaranteed help in points, boards, blocks, steals, and FG%.
Take Him: In the fourth. He’ll be a nice boost to your defensive numbers.
But Remember: Without Kidd, we think his offensive numbers might take a hit.

9. Carlos Boozer (UTH) – “Hey you! Go stand under the basket! OK, now stay there all game long!” Boozer looks like he’s going to make a career out of getting the most unfulfilling double-doubles you’ve ever seen. A new team doesn’t change his game plan, it just makes his hated in Cleveland.
Take Him: In the fourth. He’s Zach Randolph –5 points, but with slightly better FG%.
But Remember: He’s booooooring.

10. Juwan Howard (HOU) – On his 5th team in 5 years, he’s still a decent fantasy player. You’d never know it watching him play, but he still puts in 17 points and 7 boards a night. He’s had slightly declining rebound numbers, and his hustle stats have taken a hit, but he’s still a quality player most nights.
Take Him: In the fifth. A nice roster-filler, plus he might like playing next to Yao and McGrady, who will demand a lot of attention.
But Remember: He hasn’t been a third option since his time in Dallas, and he’s a few years older now. His numbers could go down a decent amount.

Tier Five: Boozer Lite.

11. PJ Brown (NOR) – Warning about this tier: They don’t really fit in order with the rest of the PF’s, but they’re easy to write up. PJ Brown is Boozer lite, but also a little skunked. He’ll rebound for you, score 10 points, and give you nice percentages, and that’s all.
Take Him: In the eighth. Fantasy filler.
But Remember: He’s old, and he’s moving to the Western Conference. 2 bad ideas for him, neither of which he can do anything about.

12. Troy Murphy (GS) – Yep, another boring double-doubler, this guy doesn’t even get double-doubles! Well, he does, but only when he gets playing time. Hopefully the loss of Dampier along with the terribleness of Adonal Foyle will force Clifford Robinson to play the five, opening up time for Murphy, who gets rebounds, and scores a bit, and that’s really it.
Take Him: In the eighth. He’s a one-category guy, if he gets time.
But Remember: He lost a lot of time due to injury last year. That actually might make him a bit of a sleeper.

2004 Position Review: Small Forwards, Pt. 2

OK, you’ve seen the elite SF’s go off the board, maybe you even got one of them, but now it’s the later rounds and you’ve got to pick somebody in the late rounds. Don’t worry, there are still some guys who can help. Just about everyone on this part of the list can help in the right situation – but could be useless and redundant on some teams.

Tier 5: The Leftovers.
13. Al Harrington (ATL) – The most popular sleeper pick of the draft, Harrington has a lot of hype to live up to for his fantasy owners this year. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, but as a starter last year with 35 mpg, he averaged 14 pts and 6 rebs, with a steal and little else. His stats will be better than that this year, but anything more than 17-8 will be tough.
Take Him: In the fifth. He’s the #2 guy on the Hawks, and he’ll have his fair chance to be a big-time scorer.
But Remember: He played 30 mins a year each of the last 2 years. How much can he really improve?

14. Latrell Sprewell (MIN) – At this point, you know what you’re gonna get from Latrell. 16 points, 3 or 4 boards and assists, a steal, a three, and fair-to-poor percentages. He’s fantasy filler, and won’t really hurt you anywhere.
Take Him: In the sixth. He hasn’t missed more than 8 games since 1998.
But Remember: He is 34 years old. For a slashing SF, that’s getting up there.

Tier 6: In the right spot, on the right team…
15. Keith Van Horn (MIL) – Keith Van Horn might be a pain in the butt for NBA teams, but for your fantasy team, he could be just what the doctor ordered. A little short on 3’s from your guards? Your big men don’t rebound as much as they should? Let Van Horn take the reigns.
Take Him: In the sixth or later. Don’t expect a great player, just a contributor.
But Remember: He’s downright terrible in the defensive categories.

16. Glenn Robinson (PHI) – So, you say you like Van Horn, but you’re looking for someone a little more injury-prone, who rebounds less and complains more? Then Glenn Robinson is your man. He’ll get you points, and disappoint you everywhere else, but if you take him in the right spot and he stays healthy, he’ll be a nice contributor
Take Him: In the seventh. He could get back over the 20 ppg threshold this year.
But Remember: He’s been hurt each of the last three years. Fool me once, shame on you…

Tier 7: Any moment now…

17. Mike Dunleavy (GSW) – Entering his third year in the league, the time is now for Dunleavy. I know, I don’t like him either, but the kid can shoot and rebound, and put in 3’s and hustle. He’s shown he can hold his own in the L, but now it’s his time to show he can take over games. Look for nice bumps across the board; 16 points, 8 boards, 4 assists, 2 3’s, a steal…a nice player.
Take Him: In the seventh or later. A nice mini-sleeper for this year, he should put up 5th-rounder stats.
But Remember: The curse of the Dookie will get him sooner or later.

18. Drew Gooden (CLE) – He was taken right after Dunleavy in the 2002 draft, and that looks about right. He just hasn’t found his niche yet, but it could be that Cleveland is a great place for him. He’s the clear number 3 scoring option behind James and Z, and he’ll definitely get his minutes. A line of 15 points and 8 boards, with admittedly little else, is a reasonable expectation.
Take Him: In the eighth or later. This might be his last chance at a starting gig, so he’ll make the most of it.
But Remember: When two teams give up on you in two years, it’s a trend.

19. Tayshaun Prince (DET) – Yes, this is three 2002 draft picks in a row. Prince has been huge for the Pistons, but his stats haven’t reflected it. There’s not much reason to think that they will now other than the fact that another year under the belt could help him out on the offensive end. If he can bump his 3’s, steals and blocks up over 1 per game, he’s gonna be a quiet, steady performer for your fantasy team.
Take Him: In the eighth or later. He’ll never be a star, but he’s not a risk at all.
But Remember: He’s the 4th scoring option at best on this team. Will he find his shots?

Tier 8: We’re losing altitude!
20. Stephen Jackson (IND) – Last year was supposed to be his breakout season in Atlanta, and he did OK. 18 points, nice 3’s and steals, decent rebounds. But now, he’s going back to the reserve role on a stacked Indiana team. He should see more time than he did with the Spurs, but not nearly what he got with the Hawks, and he won’t have the ball in his hands as much when he is on the court.
Take Him: In the 9th. If he gets 30 minutes (which he should), his steals and 3’s will make him valuable.
But Remember: He probably won’t help you in any other categories. He’s a situational pick.

21. Jerry Stackhouse (DAL) – Don’t expect him to be the next Antawn Jamison. His FG% stinks, he will complain about his playing time, and he might not be in Dallas all year long. He’s got a cranky knee and a crankier mouth. Avoid this year.
Take Him: No.
But Remember: If he gets dealt and handed a starting role, he could have value.

22. Matt Harpring (UTA) – He’s a solid player when he gets minutes, but after being hurt for most of last year, he seems to have lost his starting spot in Utah. He’ll put up nice percentages and strong rebound numbers when he gets minutes, but how many minutes will he get?
Take Him: Late. If he gets 30 minutes he’ll be a nice Util player.
But Remember: Keep him on a short rope. No minutes, no roster spot.

Tier Nine: The Rest of the Rest.

23. Grant Hill (ORL) – You knew he’d be on this list. Totally unpredictable, but even if he plays all year (HA!) he won’t do better than 14 points, 6 boards, and 4 assists.
24. Tim Thomas (NYK) – How a guy can play forward for 30 minutes a game and not grab 5 rebounds is beyond me. But he scores, and shoots threes, and will be on someone’s roster.
25. Wally Szczerbiak (MIN) – I can’t believe my spellchecker doesn’t like this guy! Last year stunk for Wally World, but if he gets minutes, he gets points, and nice percentages.
26. Caron Butler (LAL) – What a letdown sophomore year for Butler. He won’t be that bad, but he won’t reach his rookie year numbers, either.
27. Tyson Chandler (CHI) – Boy, he’s had some flashes of brilliance. If his back holds up, he’s a huge sleeper. But that’s a big if.
28. Luol Deng (CHI) – Worth a late-round flyer, but priority I think goes to Chandler for the Bulls, and it should for you, too.
29. Jarvis Hayes (WAS) – He looked great for stretches last year, and if he gets minutes, could be a solid contributor.

Tier Ten: Don’t. Just Don’t.

30. Jamal Mashburn – He’s hurt. Surprise.
31. Darius Miles – When will you learn?
32. Josh Howard – Looked great last year, but won’t get minutes.
33. Andre Iguodala – Sleeper alert!
34. Shane Battier – Booooo!
35. Desmond Mason – Does a little of everything. Too little.

Central Division

Home to arguably the two strongest teams in the league, and certainly the two strongest teams in the East. Will the Baby Bulls finally grow up? Will LeBron lead the Cavs? Will anyone from the Bucks besides Michael Redd find himself on a fantasy roster?

Chicago Bulls

Kirk Hinrich, PG
The kid can play. People scoffed when the Bulls took him 7th overall, but he was the one who stepped up and really, this is his team. He does just about everything you want from a top fantasy PG. Once he took over the reigns as a starter last year he averaged over 7 apg and 2 3pg. His 12.7 ppg and 1.3 spg are only decent, and his 39% shooting is going to hurt, but that was his rookie year on a brutal team. Granted there's only more youth coming this year, and he could have a sophomore slump, but the assists and 3s are real, and he's a legit #1 PG and should be gone in the first third of the draft.

Ben Gordon, G
There's some debate as to who will be the starting SG for the Bulls. It seemed like it would be Gordon, but now there are signs that it will be Andres Nocioni. I don't like to put too much stock into the preseason, but that's usually when dealing with veterans. If a guy who has proven himself in the league for 7 years has a bad few exhibition games, don't let that override his record. But with a rookie, things are different. His possible removal from the starting lineup could be a blessing for fantasy owners who now won't waste a pick on a player who was bound to be a disappointment anyway. Rookies are dangerous; there are always exceptions (like the guy above), but there's just not much to be excited about with Gordon at this point.

Luol Deng, GF
Ah, another rookie. Deng has had a solid preseason so far and looks like he'll be in the starting lineup for the first game of his career. Does that mean you want him on your team? Not too likely. He reminds me of a lesser version of Shane Battier, as he can't really hit the outside shot and isn't as good in the hustle categories. I just can't see him doing much to help fantasy teams. That said, if he can get 35-38 mpg, he'll have at least some value, but the Bulls might try to mix and match early on before finding a rotation that works.

Tyson Chandler, PF
He's always been the more motivated of the Chicago big men, but in just his third season last year, as a 21 year old, he missed more than half the season with back problems. Not good, obviously. He's also not a scorer, it's time to accept that. Given 35 mpg, I can't see him scoring more than 15 ppg. And didn't he miss 11 straight free throws in one game two years ago? The positives are that he's a rebounding machine and can block a shot or two. In nine games last November he averaged 13/9 with a block and 49%/79%. I can't see it getting much better than that.

Eddy Curry, C
Very likely one of the most hated players in fantasy basketball. Probably didn't last past the fifth round of most drafts last year and certainly made many owners sad, angry and violent with pre-all star averages of 13.6/5.9 with less than a block, steal and assist. As usual, he turned it on in the second half, but still failed to average even 7 boards a game. He just doesn't like the dirty work, it seems. You never know if he's going to turn it on and be solid for a whole season, and he could be one of the most valuable FG% guys if he does. But he still won't get too many boards for a center and will be especially bad in assists and steals. Take him in the middle rounds as your second center and maybe things will work out.

Andres Nocioni, F
I'm not going to pretend to know much about this guy. But Chad Ford sure seems to like him, and usually that's good enough for me. It sounds like he'll be one of those guys that chips in everywhere, and if he's starting, he should have some value. How much? Who knows? Maybe worth a risk in the later rounds, but don't get too out of hand.

Antonio Davis, FC
I was at a Raptors/Wiz game early last season. Elton Brand just went down and I looked to Davis as a FA pick up to help out some. In that game Davis got me 7 boards and … nothing. Not a point, an assist, a steal, a block -- nothing. He's a horrible shooter for a big man, is 34 years old, has never averaged 15 ppg, only once averaged more than 1.3 bpg ... I think I can stop now.

Eric Piatkowski, GF
He just never fit in in Houston last year, averaging only 14 minutes in 49 games. He might get some time in Chicago if the kids aren't alright, and if so he could be a decent source of cheap 3s. But that's certainly all he'll give you, and you should not be drafting him.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Jeff McInnis, SG
The starting lineup situation in Cleveland is looking a little weird. It was assumed that Jeff McInnis and Eric Snow would battle for the starting PG spot, but now it looks like they both might start, with LeBron shifting to SF (although for our purposes, he's only a SG, at least for now). There's no denying the Cavs were a different team once McInnis came on board and when he got hurt at the end of the season, that's when their playoff hopes faded. He averaged 7.6 apg with the Cavs, but that won't happen again. He'd be lucky to get 5. He's never been a great scorer, isn't known for his outside shooting and doesn't get a lot of steals. He's not a bad late-round pick, and he could become the Cavs second scoring option at LeBron, but I don't see him being too valuable this year.

Eric Snow, PG
Snow was one of the easiest players to predict during his time in Philly. You knew you'd get about 11 pts, 7 ast, 3 reb, 1.5 stl. Now that he's in Cleveland things are a big different. Will he be the point guard, or will it be McInnis? Or will LeBron really be the one running things? If the Cavs let him run the point it seems like he could be a good fit for the team, but you just don't know. He gets absolutely no 3s, which hurts for a PG. That combined with his new situation make him worth waiting for the last rounds to consider. If you get him then and he does get his 6-7 apg, then well done.

LeBron James, PG
All hail the King. Naysayers ate a whole lot of crow because the kid was better than just about everyone thought he'd be. He looked in total control out on the court and is just an absolute physical specimen. I was there to see him pour in a then career high of 38 against the Wiz and even though I was already sold on him, it just sold me more. He should put up numbers about 10-15% worse than Kobe across the board, more or less. I see him approaching 25 ppg this year while keeping his assists and rebounds over 5 and getting to a full 3pg. His FG% might hurt a little, but he's going to help everywhere and is the one player in the league where you just don't know exactly what he's capable of, in a good way. Not in a Bonzi Wells blackout way. Don't feel bad about taking him in the first round.

Drew Gooden, F
Third team in three years for the fourth pick in the 2002 draft. Interesting. And now he has to fill the shoes of … the guy who was taken 34 picks after him. Whatever. Lots of people are expecting big things from Gooden this year, but I'd temper those expectations. LeBron is option #1 here. Big Z is option #2. If Jeff McInnis has any say in the matter, he'll be option #3. That's leaving Gooden looking awfully Juwan Howard-y to me. He might put up 15/8 pretty consistently, and he might got a some blocks (although not a ton). He'd be a decent pick starting in the 8th round or so, but I just have a hard time endorsing someone who is so obviously disliked around the league.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C
Give the big guy credit -- he's missed only one game each of the last two seasons. So what do you do with that info now? Do you say, "Well, that means he'll stay healthy" or do you say, "Well, that means he's DEFINITELY going to get hurt this year." That's your call. He's easily been one of the most productive centers the last two years even though he hasn't played much more than 30 mpg. That keeps his rebound totals down, but not his blocks as he was good for a huge 2.5 last year. He's right at the top of the second tier of centers and should be gone in the 4th/5th round. If you want to go big and make him your #2 center, or team him with another solid second tier guy you could be well on your way to a solid team in blocks and FG%, and if he does go down, at least you have another option ahead of him.

Dajuan Wagner, SG
He showed some nice flashes during his rookie season, but it just hasn't been happening in the NBA for Dajuan. And even if it does happen, he's not a guy who will ever shoot better than 40% or help out in any category besides points. He's about 1/5 of Iverson. Maybe.

Luscious Harris, SG
If the Cleveland backcourt wasn't so crowded already, Harris's signing might have meant something to fantasy players. But don't worry, it doesn't.

Aleksandar Pavlovic, GF
If given the minutes he might be another one of those foreign players who helps out in a bunch of categories. Can't see him getting the minutes, though.

DeSagana Diop, FC
Yeah, that draft pick worked out REAL nice. How can a 7-footer be a career 37% shooter?

Detroit Pistons

Chauncey Billups, PG
It was nice to see his assists get back to a respectable 5.7 after being under 4 in 2002. He is a PG after all. You know that you need another big assists guy if he's on your team, but he's still a very helpful player. Very solid in 3s and one of the best in the league at the charity stripe. If he can keep his assists between 5 and 6 and keep his scoring around 16 ppg, he's a fine 4th rounder.

Richard Hamilton, SG
What you see is what you get. Around 20 ppg on very nice shooting from a guard, but scarcely few three pointers. A decent number of rebounds and assists, very good work from the line and nice durability. Don't let the Pistons championship inflate his value, though. He's still much more valuable to them than your fantasy team. He's a solid middle round pick that won't hurt you anywhere and at least won't piss you off when looking at box scores most nights.

Tayshaun Prince, SF
Pretty good player for a guy who's obviously missing a pint of blood. Showed very nice improvement in his second year in the league and could help out a bit in every category. He will defer to Rip, Chauncey and 'Sheed when it comes to scoring and since the team is so deep he probably won't be able to get too much value, especially on a defense-oriented team. But he is a smart, solid fundamental player, so keep an eye on him.

Ben Wallace, PF
Could this be the year the clock strikes midnight for Big Ben? Could that be one of the worst, most forced puns you've ever read, even considering this is a fantasy basketball Web site? The answers to both of those questions are "quite possibly." The offseason appendectomy is a worry, as he loses basically the whole preseason. So expect a slow start, but he should recover. More worrisome is his dip in rebounds last year from 15.4 to 12.4 and his blocks from 3.5 to 3 over the last two years. Both of those are still dominant, of course, but when you only get 9.5 ppg on 42% from the field and 49% from the line, you need absolute dominance. He still gets his steals and at 30 years old he still should stay relatively healthy, but whereas you could make an argument for him as a first round pick last year, I'd wait until the third this year, especially considering his lack of center eligibility.

Rasheed Wallace, FC
I'm happy for 'Sheed. He's a good guy. Just misunderstood. He's not as good a guy for fantasy teams, though, now that he's a Piston. In 22 games with Detroit he played just over 30 mpg, and I can't see him getting much more than that this year with Campbell, Coleman and McDyess behind him. No spring chickens in the bunch, so they should all rotate to keep them healthy. He should be a solid 14/7 player who helps out in 3s and blocks and he might see his FG% creep back towards his early career numbers. Bump him up due to his center eligibility and start thinking about him after the 4th round.

Carlos Delfino, GF
I saw him a bit in a preseason game against the Wiz (read that again -- presason game against the Wiz, OK?) and the kid has got game. That much is clear. In 26 minutes he had 13 points with two 3s, 4 boards an assist and a steal. Typical well-rounded foreigner. It'll take a lot for him to have even a chance at value this year, but if it looks like he's going to get that chance, he will succeed.

Antonio McDyess, PF
Be glad he's on Detroit and is guaranteed to play less than 20 mpg. Now nobody will be foolish enough to waste a draft pick on him. He should be productive for the Pistons, but even if injuries occur, the Pistons are too smart and know that he's only an asset off the bench.

Darko Milicic, FC
Check back with us next year. Make that the year after that. Actually, the year after that. Then check in with us. Tell you what, we'll check in with you, OK?

Derrick Coleman, FC
Him and 'Sheed should be able to have some nice 'tude-offs, but Derrick has no FV. But he's more likely than McDyess or Campbell to have value if a bunch of injuries hit. Then again, one of those injuries could be to him.

Indiana Pacers

Jamaal Tinsley, PG
Last year was interesting for Tinsley. He still couldn't take complete control of the PG situation in Indiana, and actually saw the least playing time of his career. His assists took a big dip from 7.5 to 5.8, but he became a huge long-range threat completely out of nowhere by putting in 1.5 3pg, giving him plenty of value. If he can hold off Anthony Johnson and get up to 35 mpg, he might be one of the better bargain PGs out there, as he could get close to two 3s and steals per game to go with around 7 assists. It's good to be deep at PG, and if you can snag him in the 8th round or so as your 3rd PG, you could be in good shape.

Reggie Miller, SG
It's just about time to roll the credits on Miller's career. This should be it and the most fantasy relevance he'll have this year is to keep Stephen Jackson from being a star. Reggie should still have at least 1.5 3pg and will shoot around 90% from the line, but that's about all, folks.

Ron Artest, SF
Don't you want a certifiably insane player on your team? They don't come much better than Artest. He proved he was a trooper by playing through a serious thumb injury last year, and he's more likely to miss time due to suspension than injury. There were rumors of a deal to Sacramento for Peja, but it doesn't look like that's happening, so he'll continue to be the #2 option in Indiana. A couple years ago he belonged on fantasy rosters only because of his steals, and while he's dropped from his high of 2.6 in 2001, he's still good for about 2pg. Now throw in 18 points, 5 boards, 3 assists and a three pointer and you've got a stud. He's a third rounder.

Jermaine O'Neal, PF
I wouldn't worry too much about his foot injury this preseason. O'Neal has shown that he can play through pain, and more importantly play effectively. It's insane to think that this is his ninth season in the league, so he's just about as good as he's going to be. He might show a bit of improvement, but don't expect too much. The biggest concern is his newfound infatuation with the 15-foot jumper, which knocked his FG% from 48.4 in 2002 to 43.4 last year. That needs to change. The 20/10 with 2.6 bpg and almost a steal doesn't need to change. Losing his center eligibility hurts, but that just knocks him from the late first round to the early-mid second round.

Jeff Foster, C
The sign you had a bad draft and didn't think about getting solid depth at center: you end up starting Jeff Foster.

Anthony Johnson, PG
The only fantasy relevance he'll have is in relation to how much time he keeps Jamaal Tinsley on the bench. The 22 mpg he had last year was the most since his rookie season in 1997, and hopefully he'll see less than that this season.

Stephen Jackson, GF
The Stephen Jackson/Al Harrington trade should be a perfect case study for how playing time is just as important as talent in fantasy basketball. Jackson is going from being one of the only options on the lowly Hawks to the sixth man for the loaded Pacers. Expect his numbers to look a lot more like his 2002 numbers with the Spurs than last year's. He should still be worthy of a draft pick because of his strength in 3s and steals. And even though Reggie Miller has stayed remarkably healthy throughout his career, his minutes have gone down each of the last 4 years, and Jackson might actually see more time. He's not a bad pick in the late-middle rounds.

Jonathan Bender, F
I could be dead wrong, but this is just a player to avoid. Lots of people are pegging him for a breakout season this year, but I just can't see it happening. It's apparent he has the talent, but as has been discussed, that's just part of the equation. The two other elements -- durability and playing time -- are huge question marks for Bender. He played only a quarter of the season last year and just over half the year before. It's possible he stays healthy all year, but just unlikely. In the event he does stay healhty there's still the matter of getting on the court. He's the second person off the bench. Just nothing more than a very late round flyer.

Scott Pollard, C
Before last season some hot freaks thought Pollard might actually have some fantasy value. Don't think anyone will be making that mistake again.

Milwaukee Bucks

Mike James, PG
T.J. Ford's replacement could be a pretty nice late round pick. In 30 mpg with Boston last year he averaged a very nice 1.6 3pg to go along with 1.3 spg and 4.4 apg. And remember how even unknown Damon Jones put up some decent fantasy numbers when given enough PT last year for the Bucks? With Redd and Van Horn hitting jump shots, James should be a nice source of assists and is an ideal third PG on a solid fantasy roster.

Michael Redd, SG
Certainly stepped up his game after becoming the team's #1 option last year, but has to be considered a slight disappointment if only because his 3PM went significantly down despite the extra 8 minutes. After shooting about 44% the previous two years from long distance he shot just 35% last year. I'd be willing to take it as an anomaly and think that he'll be good for at least 2 3pg this year. You'd hope so because other than points and FT% he doesn't give you much -- very lackluster numbers in assists and steals, with a decent number of rebounds. Because he offers so little in the hustle cats, I might let someone else use a third or fourth rounder on him.

Keith Van Horn, SF
Booooooring. It's just so easy to dislike this guy, he's like the Pip of the NBA. He'll be of help in all of the shooting categories, including 3PM, and will be a decent source of rebounds. But again, because of the total lack of steals from a SF, I'd be willing to let someone else take him in the 6th or 7th round. If he's there in the 8th, then go for it.

Joe Smith, PF
The former Terp was a nice little surprise last year because he almost definitely went undrafted and was a pretty consistent source of boards and a few blocks. He could put up another 11/9 season, but it's just not going to get any better than that. He hasn't played more than 30 mpg since 1998, so don't expect that to change now. He's a clear step below Kenny Thomas, which isn't saying too much.

Dan Gadzuric, C
It's unclear who will win the Bucks starting center job, and it's likely that whoever wins this thrilling competition won't have much fantasy value, but Gadzuric has some potential if only because he averaged a very strong 1.6 bpg last season in only 17 mpg. He also shot 52% from the field (better than from the line) so if he could get only 25 mpg, he'd be worth a roster spot on teams in need of blocks.

T.J. Ford, PG
It's really too bad because he's an exciting player to watch (and had the potential to be one of the top assists guys for fantasy purposes) but it looks doubtful that Ford will play this year. I wouldn't waste even a last round pick on him.

Maurice Williams, PG
He seemed like a decent enough player in limited action for the Jazz last year, but it's doubtful he'll take enough time away from Mike James to have any fantasy value.

Desmond Mason, GF
No assists, no steals, no blocks, no 3PM. Decent help in FG%, but as sixth man he doesn't get enough points to help. Even when he got 35 mpg with Seattle in 2002 he didn't have much value, so don't waste a pick on him.

Toni Kukoc, F
He'll have a game every once in a while that makes you think about picking him up, but he just can't get enough minutes to have any impact. He does get a little bit of everything and if you rate his stats out to 35 mpg or so, he'd be a fine player. But the last time he played that much was in 1998.

Zaza Pachulia, C
People in the know seem to like him, and think he could emerge as the Bucks starting center. He didn't get much PT in Orlando last year, and there wasn't much to like in what little time he did get. Shooting 39% just won't cut it for a center, and he only blocked 12 shots all year. Keep an eye on him, but don't go reaching.

2004 Player Rankings: Small Forwards, Pt. 1

2004 Player Rankings: Small Forwards
Need a shooter? A rebounder? A defensive stopper? Here’s your chance to shape your team however you like it. Much like a name for your band, you won’t know what kind of fantasy basketball team you have until you have a small forward. So let’s see what there is to choose from.

Tier One: Kevin Garnett

1. Kevin Garnett (MIN) – All talk about the top pick in the draft starts and ends with Kevin Garnett. He helps you in every single category except threes. He’s a huge plus in boards and blocks, gets steals like a PG, and shoots about 50%.
Take Him: First overall. And don’t look back.
But Remember: Your draft isn’t over yet!

Tier Two: Silent But Deadly

2. Andrei Kirilenko (UTH) – Full disclosure: I drafted this guy in the third round last year and loved every minute of it. He fills up the box score every night, and gives you the ability to ignore blocks and steals for the next couple of rounds.
Take Him: In the mid-to-late first round. He might not be a ‘name’ player, but he’s certainly a numbers player.
But Remember: His pedestrian scoring numbers, as a first rounder, mean you’ll need some serious scorers later on. Plus, he only qualifies as a PF in some leagues, which would cut into his value.

3. Shaun Marion (PHO) – Possibly the most complete player in fantasy basketball. He’s a plus in 3’s, steals, blocks, %’s, rebounds…just a solid all-around player. He won’t dominate a category but he’ll keep you in the running for everything.
Take Him: In the mid-to-late first round. He’s a great first round pick because you can go in any direction with your next few selections.
But Remember: His name has come up in trade discussions. Worth noting but I don’t see him getting moved.

4. Peja Stojakovic (SAC) – He shoots lights out every night. 3 3-pointers, .480 from the field, and a ridiculous .927 from the line last year. He might be a little grumpy, but that won’t hurt your fantasy team. He is a top-5 pick based on his stats last year, but the at least temporary return of Webber might bring his numbers down.
Take Him: Late in the first round. With Gerald Wallace gone, there’s no reason to think he won’t keep going 40 minutes a night.
But Remember: His points, boards, 3’s, and FT% were all career highs last year. Don’t look for a repeat.

Tier Three: Next Best

5. Carmelo Anthony (DEN) – That ‘other’ stud rookie is ready to have a serious impact here in his sophomore season. He’s already a stud scorer, but now he’s got to start doing all the little things that make fantasy owners gush. We think he’ll make progress, but he’s not an elite player yet. Look for 8-9 rebounds, a three, a steal, and a few more blocks than last year.
Take Him: In the mid-late second round. He’s a risky pick there, but if you really want him you won’t be able to wait until the next round.
But Remember: A sophomore slump could be in the cards, as he didn’t exactly ‘shine’ in the Olympics. Plus, that whole pot thing could end up being a problem.

6. Lamar Odom (LAL) – The Pippen to Kobe’s MJ, he’s in a great position this year. The unquestioned #2 option on a team where the #1 option will draw double-and-triple teams, Odom could set a career high in scoring this year, plus continue to rebound like a monster and help a little bit everywhere else.
Take him: Late in the 2nd round. This could be a breakout year for Odom, and he hasn’t exactly been chopped liver so far.
But Remember: Before last year he missed a ton of time due to injuries, so be wary.

7. Ron Artest (IND) – He’s playing more, shooting more, scoring more, and still getting more than 2 steals a game. He’s a guy who will always keep you on your toes with possible suspensions and emotional freak-outs, but when he’s playing, he’s in the prime of his career.
Take Him: In the third. A classic third round pick, where the only thing he does really well is steal the ball, but he doesn’t really do anything poorly.
But Remember: Make sure to have a solid SF elsewhere on your roster for those one-and-two-game absences he likes to have.

Tier Four: Good Players, Bad Teams.

8. Antoine Walker (ATL) – Bombs awaaaay! Walker will be a huge plus in 7 of the 8 fantasy categories. One of only 2 decent players on the Hawks, he’s going to score, pass, board, and steal with the best of ‘em. Unfortunately, his FT% has gone from ugly to hideous – a horrific 55% last year.
Take Him: In the third or fourth round. Expect his numbers across the board to be more like they were in Boston.
But Remember: He’s an automatic –3 points in FT%. Be prepared to punt it, or have great FT shooters around him.

9. Richard Jefferson (NJN) – We know he can shoot – he’s a 49% career shooter from the field. But that was with the best passer of our time feeding him the ball, K-Mart drawing the D inside, and Kittles drawing the D outside. Now he’s on his own. He’ll certainly score more (look for 23 ppg), and get more assists with the ball in his hand, but he’s got no help.
Take Him: In the 4th round, and cross your fingers. He could be ready to emerge this year.
But Remember: He looks nice as a #3 guy, but as a #1? Defenses are gonna key on him, making his life miserable – and maybe yours miserable, too.

10. Antawn Jamison (WAS) – The latest addition to Warriors East, look for ‘tawn to return to form this year statistically. Which means points and boards and very little else, but enough else that he’s a valuable fantasy player.
Take Him: In the fourth. He hasn’t missed a game in 4 years.
But Remember: He’s never been much of a passer or blocker, and his FG% won’t be over 50% again.

11. Donyell Marshall (TOR) – OK, what the hell is this all about. A journeyman SF ends up in Toronto, and all of a sudden he’s Marion Lite. 3’s, boards, steals, blocks…he helps you everywhere. Can he keep it up? It’s gotta be worth the risk at some point.
Take Him: In the fourth, but no earlier. If he proves himself again, then next year we’ll take him in the 2nd, but 5 months in Canada doth not a fantasy stud make.
But Remember: Even in down years (i.e., the rest of his career), he put up decent numbers, so the risk might not be as bad as it looks.

12. Rashard Lewis (SEA) – The safest pick amongst this tier, but he brings up the rear because he’s got a pretty low ceiling. You know what you’re gonna get from Lewis – 17 points, 6 boards, nice threes, and a steal. While those numbers are nice, they’re not great. He’s a nice player – but not great.
Take Him: In the 4th or 5th rounds. Nice fantasy filler, and not much of an injury risk.
But Remember: He’s not going to win you any championships – you’re going to need to take risks elsewhere.

2004 Position Review: Shooting Guards, Pt. 2

OK, so you went with the scarcity strategy, loaded up on C’s and PG’s, and now it’s the mid-rounds and you haven’t got anyone to play the 2 guard. Don’t worry, there’s plenty left! Let’s take a look:

Tier 4: The Illusions.
13. James Posey (MEM) – Hey, I don’t get it either. But somehow, for some reason, this kid absolutely exploded in the 2nd half last year. After the break he had 17 pts, 5.9 boards, 1.5 assists, 1.4 3’s, and 1.9 steals. A total box-score stuffer.
Take Him: In the 7th or later. He’s a great risk pick that late, plus he qualifies at F, too.
But Remember: He’s going to slip under most people’s radar, and he probably should – there’s no reason to believe he’s going to keep up that pace.

14. Jason Richardson (GSW) – This once one-dimensional dunk artist is entering his 4th year in the L, and we like him to become a more well rounded player. Last year he improved his points as expected, but also his rebounds, becoming a plus in that category grabbing 6.7 a game, plus he shot his best FG% of his short career.
Take Him: In the 7th. It’s easy to forget he’s only 23, and still improving.
But Remember: He’s shot 70% from the stripe so far in his career. That ain’t pretty.

15. Jamal Crawford (NYK) – Yikes. If you can’t get along with a pass-first PG in Chicago like Hinrich, how are you supposed to live in the big apple alongside Stephon Marbury? Crawford is definitely going to do a bunch of scoring this year, but his assists will take a big hit, and his already-scary FG% will take a hit once he starts forcing shots.
Take Him: In the 7th or 8th. He’s gonna shoot 3’s and score. Sounds like a SG to me.
But Remember: He’s a head case. Do you have the heart to deal with that? Only you can answer that question.

16. Quentin Richardson (PHO) – Here’s the guy that someone will inevitably take too early. Sure the Suns gave him a huge contract, but he’s not even guaranteed starter’s minutes, with Joe Johnson taking time at the 2 spot, and Nash at the 1. He had nice numbers with the Clippers, but c’mon…that was the Clippers.
Take Him: In the 8th or later. But someone will take him in the 5th, so it’s a moot point.
But remember: Late in the year, when the guy who took Q in the 5th is all frustrated, trade for him. He’ll be a nice source of 3’s.

Tier 5: The Spurs Tier.

17. Manu Ginobilli (SAS) – You know what they say about Argentineans – they’re very good at basketball, but not fantasy basketball. And this is true of Ginobilli, who won’t really hurt you anywhere, but he’ll give you nice steal numbers and that’s about it.
Take Him: Late, but take him. He’s gonna give you a little bit just about everywhere.
But Remember: He’s in a crowded backcourt. Which brings us to…

18. Brent Barry (SAS) – The best Olympic player not to make team USA according to every Monday-morning analyst (and me, too), he’s going to be fighting for minutes in San Antonio. If he gets 25 a game, he’ll be worth owning for his assists and 3’s.
Take Him: Late, maybe. He’s never been a stud, but he definitely is very strong in those 2 categories.
But Remember: Ginobilli and Parker and beloved in S.A. Americans don’t belong in this backcourt.

Tier 6: Under the Radar.

19. Larry Hughes (WAS) – He was more valuable as a PG, but as a SG he’ll still give you plenty of reasons to smile. He won’t score 18 a game like last year now that Jamison’s in the fold, but he’ll get 15 points, 5 boards, a three, and at least a steal every night.
Take Him: In the 8th or later. He’s not going to hurt your team, at least.
But Remember: His upside isn’t too great, and he might be the 4th option if Kwame decides to play like he should this year.

20. Gerald Wallace (CHA) – He should be the first or second Bobcat taken in the draft. If ever there’s reason to draft a guy who averaged 2 points a game last year, it’s because he’s going to be a top option on an expansion team. Which means: Lots of scoring, lots of rebounds, and horrendous FG%.
Take Him: In the 8th or later. You’ll make some of your opponents angry when you take him – plenty of folks are targeting this guy.
But Remember: He averaged TWO ppg last year. In 9.1 minutes. Two points. Yikes.

Tier 7: The Rest of the Rest (A bunch of old guys plus Joe Johnson).

21. Joe Johnson (PHO) – The didn’t give Quentin Richardson $50 million dollars so he could sit and cheer for Joe Johnson, but somehow this guy always get minutes and points when you don’t expect him to.
22. Kerry Kittles (LAC) – New team means this borderline fantasy player might not be worth your time. How will not having J-Kidd affect his performance? Poorly, I’m sure.
23. Jim Jackson (HOU) – He gets 2 threes a game, and 6 boards, and a steal. He’s worth a spot on your roster.
24. Ricky Davis (BOS) – He’s worth a late pick to see if he returns to form from a few years ago, which he probably won’t. But it’s worth a shot.
25. Jalen Rose (TOR) – Who knows with this guy? He’ll put up OK numbers just about everywhere if he gets minutes, which he might not this year. I’d avoid him.
26. Allan Houston (NYK) – He’s gonna lose time to Jamal Crawford, and he murders you in boards and assists as it is. Avoid, unless you need 3’s and FT%.

Tier 8: Don’t. Just Don’t.
27. Willie Green (PHI) – Not going to get the ball.
28. Doug Christie (SAC) – Hurt; Crazy wife.
29. Jiri Welsch (BOS) – Won’t get minutes.
30. Flip Murray (SEA) – One good month last year. Zero this year.
31. Reggie Miller (IND) – I love him too. But he won’t contribute enough anymore.

Southwest Division

Man is this division tough. Duncan and the Spurs, McGrady/Yao and the Rockets, the 120 points-a-game Mavs, the 12-deep Grizz and the poor, poor Hornets.

Dallas Mavericks

Jason Terry, PG
An interesting choice to run the point for Dallas. Steve Nash could certainly score, but he looked to get his teammates involved first. Terry was certainly a score first PG, but playing in Atlanta without any other real talent around, who can blame him? Now he'll have many weapons around him and so while his scoring might drop, he should still be plenty valuable. Last season was widely considered a disappointment for him as his numbers went down everywhere except rebounds, yet he still finished the season as the #20 ranked player. He should get his assists back above 6, which still isn't that great for a #1 PG, but he's strong in the traditional PG categories (steals, 3s, FT%) and even if his playing time is down, playing for Dallas should make up for that. Start thinking about him as early as the third round.

Michael Finley, GF
He's starting to slow down. He'll still be plenty valuable, but he's over 30 and has missed at least 10 games in each of the last three seasons, so be careful. That said, he lasted until the 6th round in my draft last year and ended the season ranked in the top 50, so he was still a bargain. The presence of Jerry Stackhouse might keep his minutes at his lowest since 1997, but that might just keep him healthier and give him more value in the end. He set a new career high in 3PM last year, which is nice to see. His rebound, assist and hustle numbers aren't too inspiring, but are adequate. An unexciting 4th round pick, but should be worth it.

Marquis Daniels, GF
The Mavs are seemingly going with Daniels instead of Josh Howard in the starting lineup, and I can probably come up with 37 million reasons. It's another instance of Howard getting the shaft, but Daniels is no scrub either. In eight April games he averaged 20/6/5 with 2.3 spg and percentages of 52% and 93%. Those are heady numbers. Daniels is already one of the better players in the league and finding his way to the basket in impossible situations, but we'll see if he gets looks all season with so much other talent around. He will be an interesting one on draft day -- when you take away three pointers, Daniels and Finley could end up with strikingly similar numbers. So if Finley's a fourth rounder, what does that make Daniels? A fifth or sixth rounder? Probably, but are you willing to take that risk on a guy who had one good month, and has plenty of more proven players behind him ready to take over if he falters?

Dirk Nowitzki, FC
With Nash gone and Finley not getting any younger, this should be the year the Mavs become Dirk's team. We'll see if it happens. It would be wrong to call Dirk's season last year a disappointment when he finished the season as the 5th ranked player, but were down across the board, except in blocks. He was fighting through injuries early in the season and had a brutal December where he shot only 37%, so things will probably get better this year. Look for the scoring touch, especially from long range, to return, and Dirk should help teams in every category except assists. But if you have him at center, his three per game will actually be quite nice. You could make a case for him as the #2 pick, but he shouldn't drop farther than 7th.

Erick Dampier, C
He got his $70 million … will he still care? Probably not as much, but enough to still be a top fantasy center. He's been relatively healthy for a big man, missing only 17 games over the last three years, but he is getting to that age where injuries are becoming a concern. He was dominant in FG%, rebounds and blocks last year, and should stay strong, but I suspect a slight dip in his numbers across the board. He will go as early as the 4th round, and I'd probably let someone else get him.